Representative Lee Zeldin, the Republican and Conservative Parties’ nominee for governor of New York, is touting a new poll that has him trailing Gov. Kathy Hochul by just 4.4 percentage points, which sharply diverges from previous polls that had the governor holding double-digit leads.
The Trafalgar Group’s poll of 1,091 respondents who called themselves likely voters, conducted on Aug. 31 and last Thursday, gave the Democratic incumbent 47.8 percent to Mr. Zeldin’s 43.4 percent. Larry Sharpe, the Libertarian Party candidate, had 2.1 percent, and 6.7 percent were undecided.
“We are gaining ground,” Mr. Zeldin wrote in a fund-raising email on Saturday, “and getting crossover support from Democrats and Independents and building momentum.”
The group says that it delivers polling questionnaires using a combination of methods, including live callers, text messages, emails, and “two other proprietary digital methods we don’t share publicly.”
“Our approach to polling is markedly different from most of the industry,” according to a page on polling methodology on the Trafalgar Group’s website. “We believe the old system of delivering 20 or more questions via live phone interviews doesn’t fit the modern world. This old system skews toward people who have strong ideology and/or opinions and even worse, those who are bored and looking for someone to talk to. It also fails to address the growing number of people who refuse to share their honest opinion and the new trend of people who refuse to participate or intentionally give false answers because they question who is asking and why.”
Polls conducted in July by Emerson College and Siena College put Ms. Hochul ahead of Mr. Zeldin by 16 and 14 points, respectively. A WNYT/SurveyUSA poll conducted last month had the governor leading Mr. Zeldin by 24 percentage points.
Similarly, the Trafalgar Group’s polling of the Senate race in Washington between the Democratic incumbent, Senator Patty Murray, and the Republican candidate Tiffany Smiley puts Ms. Murray ahead by three percentage points, when earlier polls put her ahead by 18 and 20 points.
The Trafalgar Group’s poll of the race for governor of Georgia puts the Republican incumbent, Gov. Brian Kemp, ahead of his Democratic challenger, Stacey Abrams, by seven percentage points, which is between two and four percentage points greater than three other polls.
In Georgia’s Senate race, the Trafalgar Group has the Republican challenger, Herschel Walker, leading the Democratic incumbent, Raphael Warnock, by one percentage point. An Emerson College poll conducted days later also had Mr. Walker leading, by two percentage points, where two other polls had Mr. Warnock leading by three and four points.
