“A House of Dynamite,” about the 18 minutes preceding the destruction of Chicago in a nuclear attack, was the
top-streaming film on Netflix last week. Its instant success has renewed discussion about the profound danger of nuclear war. It has also prompted those concerned about this growing existential threat to life on Earth to try to seize the moment to push for political and diplomatic changes.
A wave of interpretations has followed the film directed by Kathryn Bigelow (“The Hurt Locker”) and written by Noah Oppenheim, a former president of NBC News. But there has also been pushback from the Pentagon, which objected to the film’s depiction of its anti-missile defenses being only about the same as a coin toss. However, the United States military’s objections have been almost universally rejected by nongovernment observers.
In the scenario presented in the film, a single warhead exploding over the Windy City would devastate a massive urban area. More than 350,000 people would die and 200,000 suffer potentially fatal injuries in minutes, experts who study nuclear exchanges estimate. Radioactive fallout would poison farmland, water, and food supplies for decades. The world economy would be shaken to its roots. As the explosion’s effects spread, an estimated one million people could be dead within a year. None of this is fiction.
Responsible observers note that the risk of an intentional nuclear detonation somewhere in the world is as high today as at any time in modern history. Disinformation and misinformation undermine global stability as new conflicts continually flare in regions with nuclear weapons. The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists warns, “for the first time in 40 years, the number of nuclear weapons in the world is expected to increase, and the last remaining verifiable limits on nuclear weapons in the United States and Russia are set to expire in February 2026.”
New missile-defense systems push nuclear adversaries to seek ways to defeat them. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s recent announcement that his country was advancing nuclear-powered missile technology has undermined the idea that a protective “dome” could be created above the U.S. or any other country. With nuclear propulsion, missiles can fly farther, longer, faster, and lower in the atmosphere, while increasing their maneuverability. More
effective missiles like these instantly diminish the projected efficiency of U.S. defenses below their already nearly 50-percent failure rate. This puts pressure on the U.S. to increase the size and strength of its own arsenal.
In the U.S., the president has sole authority to order a nuclear strike — but not enough time to make an informed decision. In less than a year, an erratic President Trump has already destabilized long-maintained global alliances and restraints. At the same time, China is pushing to match, if not exceed the U.S. and Russian capabilities.
Albert Einstein wrote in 1947: “The public, having been warned of the horrible nature of atomic warfare, has done nothing about it, and to a large extent has dismissed the warning from its consciousness.” We have now had a lifetime living with humankind’s ultimate threat, yet no solutions appear on the horizon. And, amid the present chaos, the renewed motivation for countries to arm for the first time — or increase the lethality of existing stockpiles — makes the possibility of a mistake even more probable.