In an era where voting validity is often questioned, and there are increasing calls for fairer and more modern methods of casting a ballot, the Monogram Shop in East Hampton Village keeps score differently.
For two decades, its owner, Valerie Smith, a self-proclaimed “political junkie,” has held her own political tally by selling cups branded with candidates’ names and keeping track of how many are sold. While people dispute how closely reflective this local count is of Americans’ presidential preference, its accuracy over the years is undeniable. With the exception of the 2016 election cycle, in which Donald Trump emerged the winner over Hillary Clinton, Ms. Smith’s count has accurately predicted winners of presidential races since its inception in 2004.
And it has become a favorite tradition in East Hampton, even with increasing political division among voters nationally. Ms. Smith said she had initial apprehension about this election season. “What surprised me once I decided to go forward and do it this time was how civilized it has been. Everybody has been really well-behaved and having a good time with it.”
“They enjoy looking at the window, they like taking in the statistics, and the data. . . . Some come in and buy cups, some walk on by and some maybe have their minds changed. Who knows?”
The questions this year started out as: Who’s going to sell more cups, President Biden or former President Trump? Then, it became: What would happen if President Biden dropped out of the race? And, finally: When Kamala Harris and Donald Trump cups are sold side by side in the window, which will be more popular?
As of earlier this week the tally stood at 5,345 cups for the two Democrats — President Biden and Vice President Harris — combined, compared to 4,759 cups for Trump. Pretty close. Before Biden dropped out, Ms. Smith said, Trump cups were flying off shelves, and Biden cup sales lagged. But since the day of her presidential campaign announcement, Vice President Harris has held a strong lead in daily counts. This week, Harris cups continued to more than double Trump cups in daily sales: On Sunday, it was 223 to 45; on Monday, the first day of the Democratic National Convention in Chicago it was 167 to 64, and Tuesday’s tally ended at 127 to 53.
But as Ms. Smith notes on her website, “Democracy is one person, one vote. However, this is not a democracy. It’s just a cup count.”
That’s one point of view. Here’s another: The cup count “demonstrates the enthusiasm and spirit of East Hampton voters for Kamala Harris,” John Avlon, the Democratic candidate for New York’s First Congressional District, said during a recent campaign event at the Clubhouse in Wainscott.
Regardless of political affiliation, buyers agree the count is engaging. Liz Temkin, a longtime Republican voter and customer of the Monogram Shop, said she buys the cups as gifts for friends. “Sometimes, I’ll buy a Trump cup for a friend . . . who hates Trump more than life itself, just to annoy them. I’ll say, ‘I brought you something that you would never buy for yourself.’ And then they just want to kill me.”
Although Ms. Temkin describes the count as “a fun little activity” and eagerly looks at the tally in the window every time she walks by, she said, “Does it mean anything? No.”
Karen Silver, a buyer of Harris-Walz cups, however, had another reason for her purchase. “Hope. I’m going to give them to a couple of my friends that have a little more hope these days than [they] did before.”
Ms. Smith and other customers hold the count to a different standard. When asked what the Monogram Shop’s political tally is reflective of, she responded simply with “voter enthusiasm, absolutely, no question.”
While many today will stress the importance of voting specifically “blue” or “red,” an exciting candidate can bring out the most unexpected individuals and reactions. Ms. Smith said that during Barack Obama’s first election, she was surprised to see “a 9-year-old boy in the store, possibly a girl, but never a boy. . . . He came up to the desk and said, ‘I’d like an Obama cup.’ And I said, ‘Indeed, here’s your cup.’ “
During the 2004 election season, “with some regularity . . . Bush supporters would come in and say, ‘I don’t like those numbers on the window, give me 100 Bush cups!’ “ she recalled.
Even though a 9-year-old boy can buy one cup for one candidate, and an eligible voter can buy 100 for another, the count’s accuracy over the years seems largely to hold.
—
Natalie Brenner was a participant in The Star’s Summer Academy, a journalism program for high school students.
