What the Weather Service has had to say about the end of this workweek fits right in with what we can expect in November here. Yet the weather itself seems to me to be subtly shifting. I don't have any specific evidence to say that the weather is changing (though the climate certainly is). Rather, at a minimum, my gut tells me that storms are coming from unfamiliar directions. Wind out of the east traditionally warned of rain, gusty conditions. Now easterlies by themselves do not portend gray skies and are a less reliable indication of what is to come.
The timing of month-to-month changes in the weather remain more or less in order. October often begins warm and clear. Halloween signals the beginning of colder days. November is windy and wet. The air in early December can be still, with less windchill than the month before and a hint of warmth from the sun. But as with Hurricane Sandy in 2012 and this year's Hurricane Melissa, storms are behaving strangely. Sandy was huge and hung around for days. Melissa jumped from ordinary to catastrophic in 24 hours, and a reading from a hurricane hunter sensor showed the highest near-surface wind gust ever recorded in a hurricane.
Long-term patterns are reflected in what are known as pilot charts, which are produced by a number of countries around the world. They reflect a month-by-month historical record of wind direction and speed. The nearest information for us on the East End is a boxed section of the Atlantic roughly halfway between Montauk and Cape Hatteras. Most of this month's wind is from the north and northwest, which squares with my recollection. It shows force five for November on the Beaufort Scale.
The Beaufort Scale is named for its inventor, Cmdr. Francis Beaufort of the British Navy, who in 1805 published a unified method for describing sea conditions. Force five, a "fresh breeze," as the commander had it, has "moderate waves taking a more pronounced long form; many white horses are formed; chance of some spray."
At force seven, the "sea heaps up and white foam from breaking waves begins to be blown in streaks along the direction of the wind; spindrift begins to be seen." At hurricane strength, force 12 and above, "the air is filled with foam and spray; sea is completely white with driving spray." Poetry.