Republicans approach the midterms in a precarious place, depending on a three-vote majority to enact legislation. Ongoing partisan redistricting has left the target number in flux. To retake the House, the opposition will have to flip at least 10 of the toss-ups. National polling averages on a generic congressional ballot has Democratic candidates up over Republicans by nearly 7 percent. Looking at the trend over the past 12 months, Democratic support is growing. This is where the New York 1 could have outsized importance.
In the murky world of New York party politics there are few reliable data points to suggest that way voters on eastern Long Island will go. Past outcomes have shown voters here will support either major party, though rarely by a large margin. Given the tight odds that a First District Democrat could defeat Mr. LaLota this year, choosing the best candidate will be key. It will come down to two men: Christopher Gallant or Lukas Ventouras.
Until recently Mr. Gallant, 36, who lives in Amityville, was an air traffic controller. He is a veteran of the National Guard, did two tours overseas as a Black Hawk helicopter pilot, is a volunteer firefighter, and has been a union leader.
Mr. Ventouras, who lives in Northport and is 25, is young but has been politically active since before he was old enough to vote. He has made income inequality a focus and spent many hours reaching out to parts of the district usually ignored by mainstream candidates.
Mr. Ventouras is the only one of the candidates to actually live in the district. Mr. Gallant has pledged to move here, win or lose, if he makes it to the November election. Mr. LaLota is apparently comfortable representing it from elsewhere in Suffolk.
First District voters have shown they have no problem electing younger candidates. Mr. LaLota is 47; Lee Zeldin was just 34 when he defeated the incumbent Tim Bishop in 2014. The average age in the House is 57. We expect that Democratic primary voters will split the difference and go with Mr. Gallant, who we believe has the better chance of defeating Mr. LaLota.