The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the official campaign arm of Democrats in the House of Representatives, has added New York’s First Congressional District to its Districts in Play program, which identifies what it considers competitive Republican-held or open House seats for resource allocation and strategic planning. As part of the program, the committee has launched a fund to directly invest in the campaign of Christopher Gallant, the Democratic nominee.
Mr. Gallant is the latest candidate aiming to turning the district blue again, as President Trump’s sinking approval ratings threaten to depress Republican turnout at the polls amid predictions of a “blue wave” in the midterm elections that would return Democrats to a majority in the House, and possibly the Senate. Republicans at present hold a slim 219-to-212 majority in the House, with four vacancies.
The First District, which covers the eastern two-thirds of Suffolk County, including the northern portion of Brookhaven Town, has been held by a Republican since Lee Zeldin, now administrator of the federal Environmental Protection Agency, ousted Representative Tim Bishop in the 2014 midterm elections. Representative Nick LaLota, the incumbent, was elected in 2022 and re-elected in 2024, defeating John Avlon, his Democratic challenger, by 55 percent to 45 percent. Mr. LaLota is seeking re-election in the Nov. 3 midterm elections.
As of Aug. 4, The Cook Political Report continued to list New York’s First District in its “solid Republican” column, as did Inside Elections, which conducts nonpartisan analysis. Decision Desk HQ gives Mr. LaLota a 72-percent chance of winning re-election, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball out of the University of Virginia puts the race in its “likely Republican” column.
The Economist’s House forecast, however, gives Democrats an 84-to-85-percent chance of winning a majority in the Nov. 3 elections. Along with the First District, the Democratic campaign committee has targeted New York’s 17th District, where Representative Mike Lawler is seen as vulnerable, and the state’s 21st District, where Representative Elise Stefanik is not seeking re-election. They are among 46 districts nationwide that the committee has designated “in play.”
According to Inside Elections, Mr. LaLota had raised nearly $3.8 million to Mr. Gallant’s $647,598 as of June 30, a disparity the latter campaign hopes to narrow via the Districts in Play Program.
Mr. Gallant held a two-hour “town hall” in Riverhead on Sunday. According to his campaign, those attending raised concerns ranging from the rising cost of living and access to health care to funding for people with disabilities and Long Island’s infrastructure needs.
