The Nov. 3 midterm elections are widely expected to see Democrats reclaim a majority in the United States House of Representatives, and possibly in the Senate.
In a year marked by inflation and the high cost of everything from fuel and utilities to groceries and transportation, an intractable war against Iran that had cost more than $40 billion by early September, growing instability around the world, and a Republican president who is deeply unpopular, Democratic candidates are competitive in states and districts that had previously been safely in Republican control.
Control of Long Island’s four congressional districts will help determine the majority in the 120th Congress, which is to be sworn in on Jan. 3, 2027. Despite the political headwinds Republican candidates face nationally, however, polls suggest a status quo result on Long Island, with all four incumbents, two Republicans and two Democrats, projected to win re-election.
New York’s First Congressional District has been in Republican control since Lee Zeldin, then a state senator, defeated Representative Tim Bishop in 2014. Nick LaLota was elected to represent the district in 2022, when Mr. Zeldin ran unsuccessfully for governor of New York. That year, Mr. LaLota defeated former Southampton Town Councilwoman Bridget Fleming, the Democratic candidate, by 11 percentage points. He bested the former CNN political analyst and author John Avlon by 10 percentage points in 2024.
This year, his Democratic opponent is Christopher Gallant, a military pilot, firefighter, and union leader. Like Mr. LaLota, who lives in Amityville, Mr. Gallant lives outside the district he hopes to represent, in Amity Harbor. His campaign was rocked by the September publication of pictures depicting him modeling bondage gear for a San Francisco vendor. Mr. Gallant, who is gay, has sought to use the controversy to his advantage. “I am very proud of who I am,” he said in a social media post, “and I won’t be shamed and silenced. And I won’t allow my private life to be distorted and weaponized against me. . . . I’m in this to win.”
While the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee added the district to its Districts in Play program, which identifies what it considers competitive Republican-held or open House seats for resource allocation and strategic planning, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report continues to list the race in its “solid Republican” column. The nonpartisan Sabato’s Crystal Ball has the district in its “likely Republican” column.
In the Second District, which represents the South Shore in parts of Suffolk and Nassau Counties, Representative Andrew Garbarino, a Republican, is seeking a fourth term. His Democratic opponent is Patrick Halpin, who was the Suffolk County executive from 1988 to 1991. As in the First District, the Cook Political Report puts the race in its solid Republican column.
The state’s Third Congressional District, covering parts of northern Nassau County, northeastern Queens, and parts of Suffolk, is represented by Tom Suozzi, a Democrat who was the Nassau County executive from 2002 to 2009. He represented the Third District from 2017 to 2023, and ran unsuccessfully for the Democratic nomination for governor in 2022. In 2023, he announced that he would run for his old seat. After Representative George Santos, a Republican, was expelled from the House following its Ethics Committee’s release of a report detailing widespread corruption and misconduct, Mr. Suozzi won a February 2024 special election, retaking the seat for Democrats.
He is opposed by Michael LiPetri Jr., a former one-term state assemblyman who was Mr. Suozzi’s Republican opponent in 2024. Mr. Suozzi won that campaign by 3 percentage points. The Cook Political Report lists the district in its “lean Democratic” column, as does Sabato’s Crystal Ball.
In New York’s Fourth Congressional District, covering Nassau County’s South Shore, Representative Laura Gillen, a Democrat, is seeking a second term. In 2024, she defeated the first-term incumbent Republican, Anthony D’Esposito, by 2 percentage points. That campaign was a rematch, Mr. D’Esposito having defeated Ms. Gillen by 4 percentage points in 2022.
This year, Ms. Gillen is opposed by Jeanine Driscoll, the Hempstead receiver of taxes. The Cook Political Report lists the race in its “likely Democratic” column, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball puts it in its “lean Democratic” category.
