Hurricane Havoc Predicted on East End
 Morgan McGivern |
(6/05/2008) Hurricanes occur here so infrequently that entire generations have no idea of how powerful and destructive they can be, Nicholas Coch told an audience of about 30 during a talk in East Hampton last Thursday.
A geology professor at Queens College and author of the book “Geohazards,” Dr. Coch has earned the nickname Dr. Doom for his sobering assessments of how devastating hurricanes can be.
His talk at the Clinton Academy was timed to coincide with the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season on Sunday. It was sponsored by the AIG insurance company and its subsidiaries that still write homeowner’s policies on the East End, and the Amaden Gay Insurance Agency of East Hampton.
“New Yorkers think the cold water protects them, but a northern hurricane is the most dangerous type in North America,” Dr. Coch said. “Southern New England and Long Island are in the worst risk category, because it hits us much worse when they come.”
This September will mark the 70th anniversary of the Hurricane of 1938. Although that is estimated to have been a Category 3 storm, Dr. Coch said, “there’s a lot of wind between categories.” A Category 3 storm wind ranges from 111 to 130 miles per hour. “The 1938 storm wind was 130.”
Cold air from Canada begins to make its descent into the Northeast in September and October, the most active months for hurricanes. The arctic air acts as an accelerant, and northern hurricanes move two to three times faster.
As a result, “there’s an increase in wind damage. The wind field expands so big it can cover the whole island,” Dr. Coch said.
At the same time, the topographical variations of Long Island, which resulted from its origin as a glacial moraine, can cause tremendous complications and changes to wind direction, adding unpredictability to the mix.
Further, Long Island is part of one of the few areas in the United States where storms nearly always hit the coastline at a right angle. Hurricane Katrina hit New Orleans on a right angle, much as the recent cyclone hit Myanmar.
Storms that follow the Atlantic coastline closely are likely to hit Long Island head on, so that the full force of a hurricane’s stronger, right side hits the land east of where the storm lands. This makes the East End particularly vulnerable.
A storm surge can also be more of an issue here because of the milder slope of the continental shelf on Long Island. “The wind pushes the ocean onto the continental shelf. You have the surge plus 30-foot waves,” Dr. Coch said, making it one of the most dangerous places in America for a high-impact storm. Every foot of storm surge has the ability to advance 500 feet, driving flood waters inland.
Showing an aerial photo of Amagansett beach houses from a real estate ad, Dr. Coch noted that the 1938 Hurricane had washed over the dunes that were pictured. A similar storm would knock out countless numbers of new houses put up since then, he said.
John Matis, now a loss prevention specialist for AIG and a former Coast Guard officer who served through four storms, offered advice to help prepare for an emergency situation.
He recommended that residents have a plan to get out of town if they are in harm’s way and have enough time. As a backup, he said, they should get to know their neighbors and plan to be of mutual assistance in an emergency.
Someone not living on the East End should be the designated family contact person and have important phone numbers for when phone lines are tied up locally. Having a kit of things to take along if evacuated or to get through a few days without access to food, water, or medicine is important, Mr. Matis said.
The reason the Coast Guard was able to evacuate people stranded by Katrina, he said, was that they “knew very early how to respond to the need to evacuate and knew where to go. They picked a place to launch boats and rescue operations” and then did it. Residents also need to think in these terms, he said. “Make a decision and go.”
The real problems begin after the storm, Dr. Coch said. “The recovery is worse than the hurricane. It was just like Katrina here in 1938. We forget this.”
Citing stories of looting, law and order broken down, and people banned from their houses, he noted that the trains were knocked out and that people needed permits to get to their houses in Westhampton Beach. “There was a tremendous fire hazard from dead trees and dry conditions,” Dr. Coch said.
The South Fork was able to get back on its feet relatively efficiently he said, because the storm hit during the Depression, when Works Progress Administration workers were available to help with the cleanup effort. He wondered who would help today, and added that there would be more wreckage to dispose of since there are now more people and houses.