Feb
16
Written by:
Nature Conservancy LI
2/16/2010 10:03 AM
Leaked emails. Hidden data. Suspicion and speculation. Finger pointing and denial. It’s not the plot of latest mystery novel; unfortunately it’s how climate change science is being spun lately.
The fact is: climate is warming and the likelihood that we’ve caused it has been endorsed by every national science academy that has issued a statement on climate change, including the science academies of all of the major industrialized countries. At present, no scientific body of national or international standing has issued a dissenting statement.
With that said, there are clearly gaps in our understanding of some of the specifics. Downscaling global climate models for regional application is problematic. There is a great deal of uncertainty about the magnitude and rate of polar ice-sheet breakdown. We don’t know for sure whether certain storms will get bigger. Scientific debate over these issues is healthy. Debate fuels scientific research by identifying areas of uncertainty to be addressed in future observation, experiment and model refinement.
It is not healthy to use scientific debate as an excuse for inaction. Policy decisions – indeed, any decisions – must be made in the face of uncertainty. Everything from investment choices to employment decisions to making selections about what to eat at a restaurant is accomplished in the face of uncertainty. Nevertheless, we do these things every day. Taking steps to abate climate change may be inconvenient, and hiding behind uncertainty is easy. But inaction is a choice with potentially catastrophic consequences.
There is very little risk in preparing for climate change. Although there would be higher energy prices initially, we would soon be driving battery-powered electric cars and powering more homes and factories with sustainable energy sources, which will be much cheaper as fossil fuels become increasingly scarce. We would be more energy independent, our trade deficit would improve, the dollar would strengthen, and the air we breathe would be cleaner.
The “controversy” on climate change is not much of a controversy. Even if the overwhelming majority of evidence turns out to be wrong, we still end up with a cleaner, more energy independent world.