Point Of View

Last week, Irene Silverman told us what to look out for in the way of speed traps along the Long Island Expressway. This week, also in the spirit of public service, I called Cliff Clark to find out what kind of winter we can look forward to.

Mr. Clark, who is of the family that runs the South Fork Ferry, notes the weather conditions at the moment the sun passes over the equator on the winter solstice - 3:07 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 21, this year.

"I was in New York City that day, but I had a couple of people checking for me," said Mr. Clark, whose family's predictions have been correct "191/2 out of the past 21 times."

"There was a slight wind out of the northeast - no rain, nothing. It was a nice clear day. So, we're saying that we'll have another mild winter with some cold snaps - there had been a drop in temperature, if you recall, from the day before. There will probably be a few cold patches, but no deep freezing."

Granted, "a northeast wind, however light, is not as good as a southwest wind," he said. "An easterly wind here has a dampness to it - rain or snow - but there was no rain or snow when the sun crossed the line. Therefore, there probably will not be a lot of snow. It should be a pretty mild winter with a few cold patches."

The Clark family schedules its ferry boat maintenance based on these readings, "so we're planning to do the work outdoors this winter, not indoors."

The few times the Clarks' predictions have been off, the error has been on the conservative side. "One year, in the late '70s or early '80s, we predicted a terrible winter, but after a zero-degree snap through the Christmas break, things turned out to be good. Three years later, there was a cold northwest wind and it was snowing on the solstice, but the winter turned out to be relatively mild."

"We've never had a winter that we'd predicted to be good turn bad."

Asked if I could quote him, Mr. Clark demurred, saying, "Maybe this will be the year we're completely off."

Well, I don't care. I'm quoting him anyway.

Jack Graves